Mod 3/2
A. Introduction
B. Words Vs Actions
B.1 Practical Consequences
C. Why the Discrepancy?
C.1 Basic Values
C.2 Influence on Operations
D. Some Consequences
D.1 Restricted Commitment
D.2 Subordinate Gamesmanship
D.3 Lack of Awareness
D.4 Blind Spots
D.5 Distrust & Antagonism
D.6 Processes Damaged
E. What Can Be Done?
E.1 Blind Alleys
E.2 Value of Questions
E.3 Working With the Group
E.4 Utilizing Feedback
E.5 Laboratory Training
E.6 Open Discussion
Mod 3/2
A. Introduction
A.1 Incrementalism
A.2 Focused Trial and Error
A.3 Tentativeness
A.4 Procrastination
A.5 Decision Staggering
A.6 Fractionalizing
A.7 Hedging Bets
A.8 Maintaining Strategic Reserves
A.9 Reversible Decisions
Mod 3/2
A. Introduction
B. The Meaning of Probabilities
C. Derivation of Probabilities
C.1 A Priori
C.2 Relative Frequency
C.3 Subjective
D. Combining Probabilities
D.1 Alternative Events
D.2 Joint Events
D.3 Probability Trees
E. Probability Distributions
E.1 Discrete and Continuous Variables
E.2 Actual and Theoretical Distributions
F. The Normal Distribution
F.1 Using the Normal Distribution
G. Binomial Distribution
Mod 3/1
A. A Beginning
B. Decision Making Theory and Models
C. Decision Making Strategies – An Introduction
C.1 Activity – Reading and Reflecting
1 Framing Risk Management Problems – Common Elements
2 Time Horizons
3 Externalities
4 Data Credibility
5 Interdependencies
6 Uncertainty Recognition
7 Measurement of Costs and Benefits
Mod 3/1
A. Introduction
B. The Meaning of Probabilities
C. Derivation of Probabilities
C.1 A Priori
C.2 Relative Frequency
C.3 Subjective
D. Combining Probabilities
D.1 Alternative Events
D.2 Joint Events
D.3 Probability Trees
E. Probability Distributions
E.1 Discrete and Continuous Variables
E.2 Actual and Theoretical Distributions
F. The Normal Distribution
F.1 Using the Normal Distribution
G. Binomial Distribution
Mod 3/1
A. Introduction
B. The Nature of Risk Analysis
B.1 Risk and Human Behaviour
B.2 Risk Analysis Methodology
B.3 Statistical Analysis
C. The Risk Management Standard
C.1 Risk Identification
C.2 Risk Description
C.3 Risk Estimation
C.4 Risk Analysis Methods and Techniques
C.5 Risk Profile
D. The Cost of Risk
D.1 The Cost to Individuals
D.2 The Costs to the Country
E. The Cost of Risk Analysis
F. Conclusion
A. Introduction
B. Sequential Steps
C. The Classification
D. The Definition
E. The Specifications
F. The Decision
G. The Action
H. The Feedback
I. Concluding Note
